Home Prices Going UP and DOWN? Why is this Happening?

Home prices appreciation is falling year over year, at the same time home prices are starting to rise in most markets. The current rise is partially because mortgage interest rates have started to decline and inventory is very low. It is likely that year over year home prices will be negative starting in May, since last year was the highest prices and appreciation ever seen. It is also likely that most home price increase are inflationary.

The housing forecast for the rest of 2023 will depend on what happens with the supply of homes for sale as well as mortgage interest rates. Also a recession in the second half of 2023 could put a damper on the housing market, as rents and home prices will decline most likely. There is little evidence to show real estate is in a bubble and that home prices will crash.

Markets like San Francisco, Seattle and San Diego did have decreases in median home prices year over year. Atlanta, Miami and Tampa had year over year home price increases as real estate home prices in the South keep appreciating.

The 5 year outlook for home prices is most likely that they will increase since in 97% of 5 year periods in the last century home prices have increased. Only during 2004-2008 were home prices less 5 years later because of the 2008 housing bubble that led to a housing crash that caused the great financial crisis.

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