July 2012 Market Update – Las Vegas: Episode #238

Hello. Welcome to Todd Miller TV and it’s the end of July so I’m going to go ahead and do the monthly end of month update.

So there is some good news. It depends on your perspective. The inventory is actually rising and you’re probably going to say, “Wait a minute, but I’m an agent out there and I’m writing offers like crazy. I don’t see any more inventory.”

Well, it rose but it rose very small. For a total number of properties on the market, we have 70 properties on the market more than we had this time last month. So you’re probably saying, “Well, 70 is not a big deal.” But it’s more so that’s sort of what I want to get at. I’m going to go through the numbers specifically.

So we have about 5300 and a couple of properties, like 5306 properties on the market last month and this was in all statuses. I mean not all statuses but like homes and condos and townhomes that were available, not under [0:01:02] [Indiscernible] or anything like that.

Well today, we have 5376 which is more. So the thought was if people were saying two months ago we would run out of inventory, we have it. We haven’t run out of inventory and the reason why we have it is because houses are still coming in the market. What this means is there have been more houses listed in the last 30 days than have closed escrow.

Then what’s also interesting about this too is remember that the total number of homes sold in the last month was 3579 but that includes houses that have been under contract for a while, for whatever reason.

So the reason why this is important to know is because you’re probably watching this blog because you’re trying to get some information, trying to figure out what to do in Las Vegas in the real estate market. Maybe you’re trying to pick an agent and there are some people out there that are completely misrepresenting the statistics. I saw one where these people were convinced that we had 18 percent of the inventory we had a year ago. They’re saying we’re down 82 percent and they were putting this on Facebook and I was like, “No.” They’re like, “Yes, yes, it’s the statistics. It showed the graph.”

When I looked at the graph, what it showed was what they were counting for last year was everything under contract and in available on the market and in pending. They were counting everything and that number was like 24,000.

Then on the other side when they were counting what’s available, they were only counting single family homes. So they weren’t making an apples-to-apples comparison. They were comparing one massive number and then they were just nitpicking out this little number and that clearly is not the case.

As a matter of fact, Vegas wasn’t even the top 10 for lowest inventory as a percentage of year over year change. We didn’t make the top 10.

Right now, if you look at all the homes on the market, even things under contract, we still have over 21,000. That includes homes that may fall out because they were short sale or whatever.

So if I share this number with you, 5376, this is the total number of houses on the market. If we only look at the number of single family residents, we still are going to be about 4500; 2900 sales each month. This number has been steady for about three months now. It hasn’t really changed so you think about what inventory has been doing. It has been declining and about three months ago, it’s just hanging out. It’s like it’s sitting there.

So the thought is the summer buying season is starting to wind down. We’re going to go into the fall. We know that there’s NODs because I showed you the NOD list. The NOD lists are starting to pick up again. So this means we’re probably at a point where inventory is going to start increasing again. And who knows what’s going to happen with prices? But anyway, if I share those numbers with you, that’s my end of the month market update for July 2012 here in Las Vegas and hope to see you on another video. Thanks.