Where is inventory down the most? Episode #221

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I just saw an article, I mean the news I wanna share with you, deals with inventory in the Real Estate market. They picked the top 10 markets in the US where inventory is down. Year over year. So last year to this year the biggest decline in inventory. So, what I wanted you to do is think of a number between 1 and 10 and guess where Vegas is in there. ‘Cause I’ve been saying all along, I said this about 9 months ago, that we would start to see difficult time with our inventory maybe in the fall or early 2013, and a lot of people predicted AB-284 was gonna kill the inventory this spring, yada, yada, yada. So looking at how we stack up among/across the nation is a really important indicator because if AB-284 was really the problem, then we would leave the pack or have a major problem compared to everybody else and everyone else wouldn’t have the problem because that is a Nevada online statute. Right? So I got the list of the top 10 and I went through it to find out where Vegas was and at number 1 I found Oakland. They have the biggest decline year over year. It’s huge. Then Fresno, then Bakersfield, Phoenix, Seattle, San Jose, Tampa, Stockton, Atlanta, San Francisco, we’re not even in the top 10. And everyone’s complaining because it used to be, there were so many houses available, you just write an offer, get accepted, now you have to fight for ’em a little bit and you know. So everyone’s saying “Oh, it’s AB-284” well the truth is, every time we get an REO property we look at when the NOD was filed, and they’re all filed is taking a year. Not only that, right now 10% of the market are REOs. It’s a 55% of regular sales. You have 35% short sales, 10% REOs. So even if all the REOs disappear it will only get rid of 10% of the market. It’s not a big deal. And I thought this was interesting. What’s happened nationally REO is down. It’s down everywhere. ‘Cause the banks aer trying to do this measures. We’re not even in the top10. I know agents of these other markets. Especially is Phoenix and some of the California markets are screaming about no inventory. Worse so than we have. Not only that they have much greater appreciation than we’re having. Which is good for the market to have some appreciation. So anyway, just wanna point out that declining inventory is not necessarily a bad thing unless ofcourse you’re upset because you’ve missed the bottom. Which as I predicted happened last year. The bottom of the market happened last year. I called it on here and I called the appreciation and everything so I feel really glad about that. You can go back and look at videos. I’ve been asked to take down some videos ’cause I UN-quote/mis-guessed which is un-true! Specifically regarding AB-284 because that has not been the problem. I know a lot of people back were saying “This is going to be a problem, that’s why we’re gonna write inventory” That was not the reason. That was buyer demand increased to the highest level in over six years and nationally the REOs were down. Not specifically because of AB-284. AB-284 is something that is going to start affecting moving forward probably like I said, in the fall, or early next year is when we’ll start to see some more effect from that. But/so Vegas is not even in the top10, so all the people that are whining and crying about low inventory, it could be worse. So anyway, I just wanna share that with you,. If you wanna find the article, it’s on inthenews.com. It’s sort of like the National Real Estate new organization. And that’s just good to know because what that means is investors are gonna leave those market and come to our market to buy if they can. And we’ve seen this. We’ve seen investors coming form the bay area, we’ve seen them coming form Phoenix ’cause they’re having a hard time buying. And that is the reason why we have increased demand and why some inventories disappear. So, we’ll keep an eye in it. Like I said last month, 3000 listing at the MLS. That’s a lot. 3,400 we’re sold so, we’re getting close to sort of equilibrium. We’ll see what happens. I’ll just track it every month and my prediction going forward is just more the same. More like inventory. Steady or increasing home prices. Steady or softening rents. And is there still opportunity? Yeah sure! because there’s/this offer/if you look at the market and you say this is where we are, the down side is this much potential. But then the upside potential’s way up here. Because remember, these homes, most of these homes were at one point were 2 or 3 or 4 times as much as they’re worth now. So that’s sort of my on going prediction for 2012 going into 2013. And anyway, I just thought I would share that with you. That is my update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!