Ryan Alexander gives his prediction of economy: Episode #298

Todd: Hello. Welcome to Todd Miller TV joined here today with Las Vegas Attorney, Ryan Alexander. So Ryan, as you’re probably well aware, last year, the number of notes from folks dropped dramatically. And over the last year, the number of foreclosures has also dropped.

So typically, when we see that in real estate, a big change like that, it tends to move over into other areas. So specifically with bankruptcy, what are the trends you’ve seen really over the last few years and how do you think that the bankruptcy trend as compared to the foreclosure cycle that we sort of just finishing up with?

Ryan: Well, what I’ve seen is that the bankruptcies have actually gone hand in hand with the foreclosures. And as foreclosures have stopped in Nevada because of law changes making it more difficult for banks to foreclose, bankruptcy filings are down.

Todd: OK.

Ryan: So we’re seeing that bankruptcy filings are down about 40 percent. The official numbers from the Trustee’s office is that the bankruptcies are down about – between 38 and 42 percent from the 2010 highest numbers. So that was kind of a peak. So there was a peak in 2005 right before the law changed.

Todd: Right.

Ryan: And it dropped off and then it picked up huge in late ’08 through 2010 and early ’11. That was the peak again. Now, we’re down about 40 percent off that peak. What we believe in the bankruptcy community is because of the change in the law that made it – made the standard of proof more difficult for the banks to foreclose. They got to show all these extra paperwork in order to foreclose which they’re not doing. And so, people are waiting.

And so, the upside is that people are getting more time in their home, they’re getting other resolutions, loan months are up, loan modification has become a big option for people now. They’re much more compliant with short-sale request. The banks are offering short-sales.

But as far as bankruptcy, bankruptcy is down. And I see a lot of the practices, I know we’re doing significantly less. A lot of the practices have kind of shrunk a bit to change with what the market wants.

Todd: OK.

Ryan: We’re seeing business filings are down too. And I know from my own side, I was filing for a number of business bankruptcies about two years ago. And that has also dropped off and we’re rarely seeing as many filings. Businesses are still closing for different reasons but we’re seeing less filings. And I think a lot of the wave of commercial property filings like a lot of people who filed for businesses back two years ago where people who bought a commercial building for 2 or 3, 4 million. That’s now worth 1 million.

Todd: Yeah.

Ryan: And you’ve got to do something about that or larger. We saw and I represented and so, this is my own experience too as I represent a lot more real estate portfolios or real estate investment either individuals or companies back two to three years ago. And we’re getting less of that now. And I think – and also, people are doing less Chapter 11s and 13s to reorganize and most people are just accepting and moving on and found Chapter 7 and just get rid of the properties and start over, which is to be honest, is probably healthier for most people. Depending where they are on their business, where they are on their business maturity or their age.

Todd: OK.

Ryan: For a lot of younger people, if you’re under 45, it’s probably better just to do a 7 and start over.

Todd: OK.

Ryan: And I look at every situation differently. But I kind of counsel people, if you have time to recover and you still have fight in you then you’re probably better off with 7 in a lot of circumstances. Start over. Build your credit back up. Two or three years from now, you’ll be back right where you started as far as able to buy, able to do things. People’s cash situation might be a little different.

Todd: OK.

Ryan: Than a couple of years ago. People aren’t making the money they used to a few years and so that might affect their decision. But all the bankruptcy trends are down. Other solutions, loan modifications, short-sale is up taking that place. Foreclosures have almost stopped. We heard from the creditors earlier in the year and we heard from the banks that they were saying, “OK. Well, we’re going start judicial foreclosures. That’s going to be our new thing.” And they never did.

Todd: Yeah. Right.

Ryan: We’ve got a couple of – honestly I could say, probably we got less than a dozen that came through here that I saw in my own clients and a lot of those, they would end up giving a loan mod. They would file for judicial foreclosure. We would do an answer and then they would just end up resolving it. We have a short-sale. They say, “OK. Well, we won’t judicially foreclose. We’ll give you a short-sale instead,” which is good for the client. It’s good because you need to get out and get rid of that debt. But it doesn’t give a systemic solution. We’re not really seeing what the answer is yet.

Todd: So it’s still – we don’t have any blanket government solution. It’s just one-on-one, people resolving their individual issues.

Ryan: Yeah.

Todd: It sounds like it’s complex versus whether a person has a house, a commercial building investment real estate, a loan on their business or personal loans whether they need to do different types of file and you can do all that. Maybe you can deal with all the different types of filings on all the different scenarios that personally, their business portfolios or real estate.

Ryan: Correct.

Todd: If someone – and this is in Las Vegas obviously.

Ryan: Yeah, in Nevada.

Todd: In Nevad.. If somebody wants to get in touch with you, how do they do that?

Ryan: They can give me a call at 702-222-FIRM, that’s 222-3476. You’ll get a consultation with me. I’m the attorney that handles the case from start to finish here and we’ll go over what your own needs are specific and what you want to accomplish. I always ask a client, “What are your goals? What do you want to get out of this process and where can we get you at the end of it?” And I tell them. And a lot of people, they need something else. I refer them out if they need other services.

And so, I always prided myself on telling the person exactly what they need and not just trying to sign them up for something that I do necessarily.

Todd: Yeah, and I know that’s the case because you’ve had people come in here and say, “I have a problem.” And you tell them, “Just do a short-sale. You don’t need to do a bankruptcy.” And then they’ll just come to ask you a short-sale.

Ryan: Correct.

Todd: Yup. Awesome. Thank you very much.

Ryan: No problem, Todd.

Todd: All right, attorney Ryan Alexander here in Las Vegas. That’s my update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks.