October 2011 Las Vegas market update

Hello and welcome to Todd Miller TV. I wanted to do an update on the white board today. There is a lot of misperception there going on in the Las Vegas real estate market. I wanted to sort of take a snapshot in time today, show you want the market looks like and maybe some of those fears or misperceptions you had about the market will sort of go away.So today is the first business day of October 2011 and right now on the market single family residences and this does not include short sales because short sales we just don’t know, right, they may sell, they may not. We are not going to include short sales. REO’s, equity sellers, regular single family homes are 6,110 available that means they are in exclusive right to sell status that you could go make it offer on them. They are not under contract already or anything like that, okay.Historically, that number is low. We had just a few years ago, double that number for just single family. I have thrown out condos. I have taken out town homes. We will look at those separately on another video. Okay, these are just houses. Single family houses, okay. Now if you think about 6,110 that could be a lot of houses. Well, how many single family homes sell in a month?Well, in September of last month, okay a month ago we had 3,000 sold in a month. So we have 3,000 sales in a month with 6,100 that means we have a little over 2 months supply of homes. So with 2 months supply of homes that is not the market to be low balling the list price. The reason I say that is because your submitting an offer and 10 other people are submitting an offer because we have a very, we have very few homes to buy.Now you are probably saying yeah, but I have cash and if I have cash, man, cash means I get a discount. Well, everybody buying in this market has cash. Now the important things I want to go over you are these two numbers here because this is really going to give you a good idea of what is going on in the market. You probably heard in some place like Detroit where you can get a house for a dollar.Well, you can’t really do that here and we have talked about the 30 and $40,000 houses, right. They do exist, but I want to show you is a percentage of this number here where the bottom 10% and where the bottom 5% of the market is. So of all the houses in Las Vegas the bottom 10% is $70,000 meaning 10% of the houses are below that and 90% are above that.So if you are out there running around looking for 30, 40,000 or probably is not finding a lot of them or finding you would want to find like a steal you are probably having a hard time because you are just not many of them. The bottom 5% is a 55,000 that means only 1 in 20 homes are below 55,000. Now remember you get what you pay for. These homes are going to tend to be older homes, smaller homes not in very good shape.So what I did was I went and found the lowest available property single-family not a short sale, for sale and it is a $16,500 purchase. That is the list price, 16,500. It is a 656 square foot house so it is not a very big house. It is a two bedroom, one bath and it is built in 1932 now. If you are on the east coast that may not seem like a big deal but this is about as old as you get and that Las Vegas has only been around for about 106 years so the mere fact that you have got this house that is like that 80-years-old is pretty scary.It is a little bitty house and here is the thing I didn’t put on here. House is gutted. I mean it is totally gutted, you basically playing it for a lot in the shell. It is going to probably take 10 grand to fix up that 600 square foot house and then who knows what you will get for rent; maybe you will get 500 a month out of it. So I wanted to show you the numbers tell you where we are in the inventory level.You know everyone is talking about the shadow inventory. I did another video on that. Look it doesn’t matter. We need houses if banks are going to foreclose and the houses are going to start coming in whatever that is going to have happen we need it to happen because right now with this number of homes available and this number being bought for a month prices are going to start going back up. It is going to happen you know.Trying to sharp shoot this shadow inventory they would top it off for two years. We have never seen it yet but one thing we have seen is best over the last 6 months is investors, have figured out the market and they are flooding in, they are flooding in like crazy. We get calls in this office everyday from investors. Herd about the house I want to come buy. I can’t believe I get 15% return on my money on a rental.So anyway that was the update for today, I just wanted to sort of keep you abreast, remember this is a snapshot, this is October of 2011 you know in 6 months it could look totally different. You can go back and see some of my older videos where I would go through the numbers and you can see how it is changed but I thought I just sort of showed you today what that looks like.If you want to follow me, if you are using Twitter my handle is out Las Vegas tide. Every time I post my blog it will tweet out there and you will be able to follow me there. You can also subscribe to Todd Miller TV or you can subscribe with the YouTube channel either way watch the videos as they come out. That is my update for today and I hope to see you on another video. Thanks.