Market update 2-15-2012: Episode #197

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I wanted to do a market update. It’s February 15th. It’s a day after Valentines day and there’s a lot of “anx” out there amongst people about the “what’s happening to the inventory?” There’s a lot of information that out there. So I wanna go over some numbers and just sort o dispel all the conspiracy theory and everything else. So, I went in the MLS and I pulled actual live numbers like 5 minutes ago. In Las Vegas right now we have 9,937 properties available for purchase. That means they’re on active status. You can make an offer on them if they’re available. We have this other number here in ESCROW. These are homes that used to be in this status. They’re homes used to be under contract or used to be available. They’re under contract, some of them are REOs, some of them are flip, some of them are equity sale, some of them are short sales, and some of these are what I call repeat offenders; they’ve been short sales for a long time. They’ll probably never sale. But, that takes this total number of houses on the market. 23,661, That’s the complete total number of houses that are/that could potentially close. Now, when we look at what sold the last 36/30 days, we have 3,600 exactly, there were 3,600 sales, and which is not bad. So, you basically have over a hundred sales a day and if you look at the absorption rate here, that leaves us with a little less of 3 months inventory for this number, and that leaves us with about 6 months in change for the total numbers. That means, over 6 months there’ll still be closings happening. So I first wanna talk about this before I talk about historical numbers which you can see down here. Le me explain what this means so, if you take a very narrow view and say “Well, were gonna run out of properties because if we’re selling 3,600 a month, there’s only 9,900 in 3 months we’ll be out of inventory completely”. That’s not true! Because 6 months ago that’s about what the inventory was. And this is about what we’re selling and we didn’t run out. As a matter of fact, almost all these houses that are available, most of those are not short sales. Most of these are traditional sales or REOs, most of them had only been in the market for a few months. So, maybe back in October when you were listening to this debate about the inventory disappearing, all these are brand new properties ’cause almost none of these properties have been on the market for more than 4 months. These are mostly new properties. So this sort of thought that there’s some road block to new properties coming out the market that can’t happen isn’t true. New properties come on the market all the time, they come out every day. And it’s market forces, you know. So, I wanna look at the historical numbers with where we’ve been. 2003, at any given time, most of 2003 there were 7,500 properties available. Like this in available status that someone can make an offer on. A short year later that number went down to 2,700. And why did it go to 2,700 was because prices were increasing and there was this frenzy of people to buy houses so people were, you know, houses would come on the market had a very short time on the market. Someone would buy it and would go under a contract. So there were only 2,700 homes you could really make offers on at that time. 2006, only 2 years later, that number jumped up to 26,000 houses. It was crazy! Everyone was trying to sell their flips, they realize the market was at peak and there were no buyers and that’s when the foreclosures really started in mass. 2007, 2008, 2009 is when we saw prices declined. And we’ve kinda bit in that bottom now for 2 years, almost 3 years now, the very bottom. So when you look at this number, compared to historical values, this is a healthy market. This is where we right probably should be for a normal healthy market. 7,500 homes available, 6 months supply of inventory. Homes coming out of market and going off market, they’ve bee in a normal rate. So what I wanna point out here are 2 things: First of all, the number is not ridiculous. This is the number. I mean, somebody can fall out of Escrow, we have a lot of houses still out there. So this thought that inventories are disappearing, is rapidly disappearing, you heard 4 months ago it would be gone by now, it’s certainly not gone, with almost 10,000 houses on the market, that’s more than our healthy market number, we know that more houses come on the market. You probably heard reference to the Trustee sale, that the homes at the trustee sale is those homes, NOD stop and all that process stop. So we still have a healthy foreclosure at Trustee sale, we picked up one yesterday for investor at the Trustee sale. That house went on the market today So there’s still/that’s still happening plus there’s all these REOs, they’re in pre-listed status and eviction and personal property hold and things like that will be coming on the market. Plus you have all the investor flips that haven’t hit the market yet. The bottomline is, no one can tell/predict in 3 months or 6 months, what’s gonna happen to the inventory. Only market forces can dictate that. And just one factor, the Trustee sale and an NOD being filed or not being files is not going to strangle the market like you probably been told. We still have a lot of properties. In a year, could we get in to a condition like this or this? “Yes!” We could in to this in a year, we could be in this in a year, and the truth is, no one can predict which one we’re gonna be in. So, we do know this though: If inventory goes down, prices will tend to rise, and it’s because of supply demand. And if prices tend to rise, what would people be incentivise to do? Profit take. They’ll say: “Hey look, I bought that house for $60,000..Wow! prices have gone up” They may not stay, they may drop again so people will put houses on the market and supply a lot of inventory. That’s what happened here, and that’s what caused this. Supply demands. So the bottomline is, whatever drama you’ve heard or the sky is falling type of things you’ve heard, the bottomline is, we still have inventory, I’ll do an update in a month or 2, because that was when it was predicted we would completely run out of inventory, and I don’t think it’s gonna happen, with 23,000 houses, 3,600 is all that’s being absorbed so certainly we have atleast 6 more months of inventory plus we know houses are coming on the market. Anyway, I just wanted to share that with you and let you know that it’s not doom in gloom. We have lots of houses for sale and you know, it would be great, if the inventory went down a little bit and we could add some pricing to the market. New home builders could build that would create some jobs, economy get better. I don;t think it’s a terrible thing that inventory of homes gets to be a little low. I think that would actually be fine. So, anyway, that is my update for today, you can follow me on Twitter @ LasVegasTodd, that way, everytime I do a video it pushes to Twitter, you’ll be able to see an update. And you can also follow me on you can subscribe to that if you’re watching this on YouTube and then everyday when I do an update you’ll just get an e-mail telling you I did a new video,. So, that is my update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!