2012 Las Vegas Real Estate Outlook: Episode #192

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I got asked to do an update for 2012. Sort of my predictions for what’s gonna happen in the Las Vegas Real Estate market and that’s sort of bold for anybody to predict what’s gonna happen. But what I can do is talk about what’s happened in the past and compare that to what could potentially happen. Okay, let’s start with “What makes the Real Estate market great?” And that is having a strong economy. There’s almost a direct correlation with the economy and the good Real Estate market. Economy was really good in 2004, 2005 and 2006, and the housing market boomed here. And then the economy’s been really lousy and it’s had a multiplier effect here in Las Vegas. The first thing that’s gonna help the Las Vegas market is having a strong economy. So let’s look at where our economy is going. In Southern Nevada, we have the highest unemployment rate about a year and a half ago of 15%. Okay? A year ago, it was 14 and change, and today it’s about 12.6%. Well that’s not great ’cause the National average is 8.5, we’re up here at 12.6.. The fact that unemployment is dropping is good. It’s a leading indicator. There were actually 1,800 more jobs this December that there were last December which was good. That’s means there’s 8,500 more that could afford to buy a house. So that’s a good sign as well. Another good sign is that the prices have stopped falling. That’s actually a leading indicator. Why is that? So, What it signify is that people have confidence in the market. So confidence in the market is a leading indicator of what’s going on. The other thing that we’re starting to see that inventory disappearing. Our inventory levels has gone from about 26,000 homes down to about 12,000 homes. We’re purchasing about 3,500 of those a month or getting actually bought. We may have a short term thing but sometime in the late summer, early fall, we start to see the inventory dry up just a little bit because of AB284 and a couple other things, probably not gonna be a big deal though. The other thing that we’ve seen that’s a leading indicator is that investors have flooded the market. Usually when investors come that’s really good. But a lot of people’s say investors screwed up the market back in 2004 and 2005, and that night be the case they definitely drive a lot of exuberant new home building which definitely gave us an oversupply of homes. Another thing that’s really good is talking about new homes. We haven’t had substantial new home construction in about 3 years so, what that means is that we’re not adding to the current inventory of homes, we’re relying on the existing homes. Last year we had a net in flocks of people moving here. Yes, we had a lot of renters with a very strong rental market. But what that means is that investors now are instead to buy these homes. And one of the tings we’ve seen for example of the Trustee sale, is the investors coming in with much tighter margins buying these houses form the flippers. Because flippers now are not able to get houses at the Trustee sale as much as they were, that actually is a leading indicator. What that means is that houses will be bought instead of going to the market as a home to be sold, it’s just gotta be held privately and rented which means that’s less inventory. So what all this means is, when houses come on the market, they will tend to go quicker, and when they go quicker, they’ll tend to go for more money, and when the home prices starts to go up, that’s when the builders will start building again. And maybe the economy will get better. So, this is definitely a transition here. This is a year where no one can predict what’s gonna happen. You know, I’ve seen National Parts is. Reports said they’re gonna go up on 2%, I’ve seen one of them say they’re gonna be flat, they’re gonna go down a couple percent, nobody can predict what’s gonna happen. All the leading indicator says that certainly, within the next couple years they’re definitely gonna get better. Are we at the bottom? Did we pass the bottom? I predict it a month ago we’re at the bottom just kind of from what I’m seeing. We’ll know in 6 months. What today looks like so, my update and my sort of my outlook for 2012 is positive because leading indicators look better than the leading negatives do. We have a lot of positive leading indicators So, the only thing we have to overcome is what the people believe about the market. There’s still people reading about the reports form a couple years ago. And then they’re continuing to regurgitate those number. I did a video a month or 2 ago that said “Prices will fall 30%” well they haven’t. They haven’t fallen at all. So this thought that they would fall 30% in 6 months didn’t happen. So, I think that stuff people were waiting on then news, that’s all overblown. It wasn’t statistically based in anything Real Estate. So that is my update. Positive outlook for 2012 and beyond I think. If you watched my video about Warren Buffet yesterday, then you get where I’m coming from. Warren Buffet’s advice. if you didn’t watched the video, go find the video. What Warren Buffet’s advice for buying Real Estate. And I think you have a goog idea on what you should be doing in 2012. That is my update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!