AB-284 Update: Episode #190

Hello welcome to Todd Miller TV. Sorry I’m not in the conference room today, can’t find a white board so I had to find something to write on to show you all this. So I’m just out here in our company area. A piece of glass on the wall. Super low tech. I don’t have a big studio. I don’t have ton of time to get professional editing and all that for something like this. I just wanna get the information to you so I apologize if it’s kinda rough. As you probably saw Brian Lebo’s video from a few months ago where he talked about the AB-284, and what was happening with that and the potential implications. And he just did another recently, I just want to sort of talk about that and go over the numbers. I don’t dispute a lot of the stuff he says, I mean, absolutely at some point we don’t have any trustee sales that we’re gonna/it’s gonna affect the inventory to some extent. The issue I’ve always had is with the timeline. The timeline was we’re run out of properties in the spring. We’ll be out of properties in the spring. So that was said over and over in the video, and it was re-iterated in the last video that it was “here we are, it was already happening” But I just wanna talk about this not happening. We’re not gonna see it for quite some time and this is why. So in the original video, I went over the numbers. The NODs, Trustee Sales and REOs at the time, there were 35,518 total properties at some stage of foreclosure or it come on the market yet available but they didn’t have any offers or they were in the REO agents pipeline waiting to be listed. 35,518 it was 551 days of inventory. So its over a year’s worth of waiting for that to flow out. So, now we’re gonna step ahead and we’re gonna look at where we are today, 90 days later. So 90 days later, the NODs are certainly down. They’re down at 21340. That’s the total number of NODs from the on es that were filed a year ago to the ones that were filed yesterday. Okay. This has been a drop, almost directly because of AB-284. Notice the Trustee sales are down as well, 3140. And the number of REO’s up slightly as well. That leaves as a total of inventory/potential of 29,330. So, you’re pricing yourself, well 29,330 what does that mean? Well, what that means is, we had that number before of 64/day. There were 64 houses sold per day. So how long will this last? Well, I did a video 90 days ago, so 90 days ago we’re at 551, we should be at 461 right now. We should have 461 days of inventory. That’s clearly not gonna run out in Spring. Spring starts in 2 months, we’re not gonna run out of inventory. When I took this number and divide it by 64, I got 458 days. We have 458 days of inventory. Yes it’s a less. The other thing I use to back up all this number’s was the average time to foreclose. The average time to foreclose is being reported as 330 days. Okay. What that means is it’s taking 330 days from an NOD is filed until it gets foreclosed. That’s almost a year. What that means is, the properties today that are coming form Trustee sale, the NODs were filed in about March of last year. So what that means is, that the lack of inventory at the Trustee sale form October, it’s gonna take 33o days to filter through. So this idea, that in the Spring we’re gonna run out of inventory, is not true. We still have a ton. 458 days, it’s not a lot. REOs in themselves are probably 25% of the market. It’s not gonna be devastating. It’s not gonna be anything. It’s gonna create an opportunity for those people right now that are buying houses to go get a great deal. Okay? Because inventory will tend to decrease and hopefully prices will go up. Until prices go up, home builders can’t build and we can’t get our economy going. So there’s not all terrible news on this, but I just want to respond to the video. We’re still getting REO inventory. We’re about 5% market share. We got 22 so far this month between all the people here at our company who do REO. And I/take that backward 2% market share so, if you multiply that times 50. You kinda see what everybody else is getting. So people are still getting REOs, there’s still inventory out there. Just look in the MLS, there’s plenty of house to buy still. There will be for quite some time. we’re almost at the Spring. I’ll do another video about 3 months when we’re in the Spring. Show you we still have properties, there’s still properties at the Trustee sale. They didn’t happen, you know, is it proposed? Yes, if we have a year of no Trustee Sale file then we’re gonna have an issue in the air. But until then, we’re fine. Any way, I just thought I would share that with you. Sorry for the crudeness the lack of professional editing and music and the script and all the other stuff. You know, a really nice backboard, a suit and all that stuff. So I just wanted to get the numbers out. And if you watched my videos before you’ve seen that this is sort of how I roll, which is all good. Anyway, so that is my update for today and I apologize again because it’s like the sun is just rising so it’s not super well lit in here. But you probably got the information. If you want to get information as I do this videos, there’s 2 ways to do it. One is, follow me in Twitter at LasVegasTodd, just follow that and as I do the video it get posted to Twitter automatically or on toddmillertv.com. If you go in there, there’s a little RSS feed. You can just put your e-mail address in and then it’ll/everytime I do a video it will just shott you an e-mail. That is the update and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!