Todd shows that the Trustee sale will be alive and well for quite some time.

The map is below. Just click on it to bring it up as a pdf.

Zip Code Map Feb 2012

Are we really running out of inventory? Todd explains….

Sorry its a bit dark.

Todd goes over the list.

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I wanted to give a quick update on the recent new that Las Vegas had lost 10% of it’s market value last year. And I wanna cabby out that this is historic information. It’s what happened in the past. Not necessarily showing what may happen in the future. But, most important thing is that, is to understand what the number means. So, what they went by was median home values. So I’ll give you an example of what a median is. If 3 houses sell in the neighborhood, one for 90, one for 100, and one for 110. The median values is 100 in that neighborhood because that was the middle sale. So let’s say that next year, all those houses sell for $5,000 more. So the 90 sold for 95, the 100 sold for 105, and the 110 sold for 115. The Layman, and anyone look at that ’cause the prices were worth more. So the homes are worth more, prices went up, values increased, right? But let’s say statistically that, or let’s say that 2 smaller houses for some reason that hadn’t sold a year before, sold. And they sold for 80,000 each. Well, now the median number that neighborhood’s not the 95. Because it was the bottom but 2 ones come in below it. So, instead of looking at the 105 they’re looking at the 95 as the Median. So they would report that the median dropped 5% and home prices are off 5%. But the people that sold the house are gonna say ” Wait, I made money on my house.” So sales next to the types of homes being sold are gonna count in to that.Now the other things that’s counting in is “What if you flip a house for 60,000. You bought it for 60 as an REO, you fixed it up and sold it for 80.” That’s 2 sales for the same house. So what’s gonna happen is it’s gonna pull down the average ’cause you’re throwing in 2 low sales into the mix. Million dollar houses aren’t being flipped like 60, 70, 80, you know, homes under a hundred thousand are being flipped. So, there’s gonna be a lot of/the numbers aren’t gonna be true. So the value of Real Estate Las Vegas did not fall 10%. What fell statistically was the median because because of the churn of the low end properties. So, I just want to give you good information so you would know what you’re getting into if you’re buying in to Las Vegas or just understand what’s going on in Las Vegas. So, anyway I thought I would share that with you. That is my update and hope to see you on another video.. Thanks a lot…

Todd decided to have some fun this weekend. Thanks to all the actors and actresses who helped out with the project.

Ryan Alexander, Janalyne Hansen, Chris Rodriguez, and Roselynn Savage.

Here is Episode 2

Other commentary:

The first video was released on Feb 5th 2012 and on the 6th, another real estate agent decided to make his own “Sh*t real estate agents say” video and proclaim it to be the original.

What this means is that I either have ESP and somehow knew about the video and had seen it and copied it, or that I don’t have ESP and the other agent is being an opportunist.

I think it is ironic that I made this video making fun of real estate agents, and another agent comes along and decides to prove that there are a lot of slimy people in real estate.

Our video was shot with actors, a script was written, and it was produced and released without any material. All of the footage of these videos were filmed before any other “Shit real estate agents say” video came out.

I was told by someone that I should be flattered by this, and I kinda am, but at the same time, just because someone paid for a bunch of Youtube views to spike their ratings, doesn’t mean that people really watched the video.

So stay tuned because I have more videos that I will be putting out, both serious, and some fun like these.

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I got asked to do an update for 2012. Sort of my predictions for what’s gonna happen in the Las Vegas Real Estate market and that’s sort of bold for anybody to predict what’s gonna happen. But what I can do is talk about what’s happened in the past and compare that to what could potentially happen. Okay, let’s start with “What makes the Real Estate market great?” And that is having a strong economy. There’s almost a direct correlation with the economy and the good Real Estate market. Economy was really good in 2004, 2005 and 2006, and the housing market boomed here. And then the economy’s been really lousy and it’s had a multiplier effect here in Las Vegas. The first thing that’s gonna help the Las Vegas market is having a strong economy. So let’s look at where our economy is going. In Southern Nevada, we have the highest unemployment rate about a year and a half ago of 15%. Okay? A year ago, it was 14 and change, and today it’s about 12.6%. Well that’s not great ’cause the National average is 8.5, we’re up here at 12.6.. The fact that unemployment is dropping is good. It’s a leading indicator. There were actually 1,800 more jobs this December that there were last December which was good. That’s means there’s 8,500 more that could afford to buy a house. So that’s a good sign as well. Another good sign is that the prices have stopped falling. That’s actually a leading indicator. Why is that? So, What it signify is that people have confidence in the market. So confidence in the market is a leading indicator of what’s going on. The other thing that we’re starting to see that inventory disappearing. Our inventory levels has gone from about 26,000 homes down to about 12,000 homes. We’re purchasing about 3,500 of those a month or getting actually bought. We may have a short term thing but sometime in the late summer, early fall, we start to see the inventory dry up just a little bit because of AB284 and a couple other things, probably not gonna be a big deal though. The other thing that we’ve seen that’s a leading indicator is that investors have flooded the market. Usually when investors come that’s really good. But a lot of people’s say investors screwed up the market back in 2004 and 2005, and that night be the case they definitely drive a lot of exuberant new home building which definitely gave us an oversupply of homes. Another thing that’s really good is talking about new homes. We haven’t had substantial new home construction in about 3 years so, what that means is that we’re not adding to the current inventory of homes, we’re relying on the existing homes. Last year we had a net in flocks of people moving here. Yes, we had a lot of renters with a very strong rental market. But what that means is that investors now are instead to buy these homes. And one of the tings we’ve seen for example of the Trustee sale, is the investors coming in with much tighter margins buying these houses form the flippers. Because flippers now are not able to get houses at the Trustee sale as much as they were, that actually is a leading indicator. What that means is that houses will be bought instead of going to the market as a home to be sold, it’s just gotta be held privately and rented which means that’s less inventory. So what all this means is, when houses come on the market, they will tend to go quicker, and when they go quicker, they’ll tend to go for more money, and when the home prices starts to go up, that’s when the builders will start building again. And maybe the economy will get better. So, this is definitely a transition here. This is a year where no one can predict what’s gonna happen. You know, I’ve seen National Parts is. Reports said they’re gonna go up on 2%, I’ve seen one of them say they’re gonna be flat, they’re gonna go down a couple percent, nobody can predict what’s gonna happen. All the leading indicator says that certainly, within the next couple years they’re definitely gonna get better. Are we at the bottom? Did we pass the bottom? I predict it a month ago we’re at the bottom just kind of from what I’m seeing. We’ll know in 6 months. What today looks like so, my update and my sort of my outlook for 2012 is positive because leading indicators look better than the leading negatives do. We have a lot of positive leading indicators So, the only thing we have to overcome is what the people believe about the market. There’s still people reading about the reports form a couple years ago. And then they’re continuing to regurgitate those number. I did a video a month or 2 ago that said “Prices will fall 30%” well they haven’t. They haven’t fallen at all. So this thought that they would fall 30% in 6 months didn’t happen. So, I think that stuff people were waiting on then news, that’s all overblown. It wasn’t statistically based in anything Real Estate. So that is my update. Positive outlook for 2012 and beyond I think. If you watched my video about Warren Buffet yesterday, then you get where I’m coming from. Warren Buffet’s advice. if you didn’t watched the video, go find the video. What Warren Buffet’s advice for buying Real Estate. And I think you have a goog idea on what you should be doing in 2012. That is my update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!

Warren Buffet’s secretary of 37 years bought a second home. Here was her advice to him.

Hello! Welcome to Todd Miller TV. I read an interesting article today at my iPad, I wanted to share it with you; and the title of the article is “What does Warren Buffett think about buying a house.” Many of you probably know he’s one of the wealthiest people in the world. probably one of the best investors of all time. And recently, his secretary of 37 years bought a 2nd home and she told Mr. Buffett this and this was his response, this is what she stated for the article that he had told her. This is a quote from her. “I just thought it was a good tome to buy a home. Warren tells me that it will be the best opportunity in my lifetime. Mortgage rates are low and prices have dropped dramatically. I share Warren’s view about the future of America and we believe that our country will do just fine.” I’m happy to make this investment. So we have mortgage rates low, and the prices are ridiculously low. Probably the combination to what we’ve never seen. We’ve never seen interest rates below 3% for a 5 year arm and below 4% for a 30 year fix and home prices adjusted for inflation or probably the lowest they’ve ever been ever here in Las Vegas at least. So I just wanted to share “Warren Buffett’s thinks it’s a good time to buy a home.” You probably is, and there’s a lot of people out there doing it. There’s a lot of homes out there still but they’re getting absorbed pretty quickly. So I thought I would share that with you and that is my quick update for today and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!

Hello welcome to Todd Miller TV. Sorry I’m not in the conference room today, can’t find a white board so I had to find something to write on to show you all this. So I’m just out here in our company area. A piece of glass on the wall. Super low tech. I don’t have a big studio. I don’t have ton of time to get professional editing and all that for something like this. I just wanna get the information to you so I apologize if it’s kinda rough. As you probably saw Brian Lebo’s video from a few months ago where he talked about the AB-284, and what was happening with that and the potential implications. And he just did another recently, I just want to sort of talk about that and go over the numbers. I don’t dispute a lot of the stuff he says, I mean, absolutely at some point we don’t have any trustee sales that we’re gonna/it’s gonna affect the inventory to some extent. The issue I’ve always had is with the timeline. The timeline was we’re run out of properties in the spring. We’ll be out of properties in the spring. So that was said over and over in the video, and it was re-iterated in the last video that it was “here we are, it was already happening” But I just wanna talk about this not happening. We’re not gonna see it for quite some time and this is why. So in the original video, I went over the numbers. The NODs, Trustee Sales and REOs at the time, there were 35,518 total properties at some stage of foreclosure or it come on the market yet available but they didn’t have any offers or they were in the REO agents pipeline waiting to be listed. 35,518 it was 551 days of inventory. So its over a year’s worth of waiting for that to flow out. So, now we’re gonna step ahead and we’re gonna look at where we are today, 90 days later. So 90 days later, the NODs are certainly down. They’re down at 21340. That’s the total number of NODs from the on es that were filed a year ago to the ones that were filed yesterday. Okay. This has been a drop, almost directly because of AB-284. Notice the Trustee sales are down as well, 3140. And the number of REO’s up slightly as well. That leaves as a total of inventory/potential of 29,330. So, you’re pricing yourself, well 29,330 what does that mean? Well, what that means is, we had that number before of 64/day. There were 64 houses sold per day. So how long will this last? Well, I did a video 90 days ago, so 90 days ago we’re at 551, we should be at 461 right now. We should have 461 days of inventory. That’s clearly not gonna run out in Spring. Spring starts in 2 months, we’re not gonna run out of inventory. When I took this number and divide it by 64, I got 458 days. We have 458 days of inventory. Yes it’s a less. The other thing I use to back up all this number’s was the average time to foreclose. The average time to foreclose is being reported as 330 days. Okay. What that means is it’s taking 330 days from an NOD is filed until it gets foreclosed. That’s almost a year. What that means is, the properties today that are coming form Trustee sale, the NODs were filed in about March of last year. So what that means is, that the lack of inventory at the Trustee sale form October, it’s gonna take 33o days to filter through. So this idea, that in the Spring we’re gonna run out of inventory, is not true. We still have a ton. 458 days, it’s not a lot. REOs in themselves are probably 25% of the market. It’s not gonna be devastating. It’s not gonna be anything. It’s gonna create an opportunity for those people right now that are buying houses to go get a great deal. Okay? Because inventory will tend to decrease and hopefully prices will go up. Until prices go up, home builders can’t build and we can’t get our economy going. So there’s not all terrible news on this, but I just want to respond to the video. We’re still getting REO inventory. We’re about 5% market share. We got 22 so far this month between all the people here at our company who do REO. And I/take that backward 2% market share so, if you multiply that times 50. You kinda see what everybody else is getting. So people are still getting REOs, there’s still inventory out there. Just look in the MLS, there’s plenty of house to buy still. There will be for quite some time. we’re almost at the Spring. I’ll do another video about 3 months when we’re in the Spring. Show you we still have properties, there’s still properties at the Trustee sale. They didn’t happen, you know, is it proposed? Yes, if we have a year of no Trustee Sale file then we’re gonna have an issue in the air. But until then, we’re fine. Any way, I just thought I would share that with you. Sorry for the crudeness the lack of professional editing and music and the script and all the other stuff. You know, a really nice backboard, a suit and all that stuff. So I just wanted to get the numbers out. And if you watched my videos before you’ve seen that this is sort of how I roll, which is all good. Anyway, so that is my update for today and I apologize again because it’s like the sun is just rising so it’s not super well lit in here. But you probably got the information. If you want to get information as I do this videos, there’s 2 ways to do it. One is, follow me in Twitter at LasVegasTodd, just follow that and as I do the video it get posted to Twitter automatically or on toddmillertv.com. If you go in there, there’s a little RSS feed. You can just put your e-mail address in and then it’ll/everytime I do a video it will just shott you an e-mail. That is the update and hope to see you on another video. Thanks!